I could not sleep last night as I was worried about my relatives trapped in Imphal. This is not the first time this sort of thing has happened nor will this be the last unless Government of India addresses the problem once and for all. Government of India has been holding cease-fire with the Naga nationalists, NSCN, and two parties have been engaging in a dialogue for years now. Both the parties long for peace, but solution still eludes them. The Government of Manipur, however, refuses the ceasefire to be extended to Manipur, even in the areas where only Nagas have been living since time immemorial. The crux of the problem is that Manipur sees extension of cease-fire as a step towards its territory being redrawn.
It's something like this: Go back to 1955 when present Malabar region was still part of Tamil Nadu (Madras state). The Malayalis there wanted to join Kerala, but Tamil Nadu refused to part with it. The Malayalis then argue that because they are a minority in this state they are more or less oppressed in term of job opportunity, development opurtunity etc. ; and the Tamil Nadu still refused to part with it. Tamil argue that if they want to join Kerala they can give up the land and go, but that the Malayalis of Malabar refused saying it's been their land since time immemorial, and they have to go with their land. Now a Malayali leader from Malabar region wanted to visit his village after so many years, but Tamil Nadu refused to let him enter the region saying it will lead to fragmentation of Tamil Nadu. So the Malayalis of Malabar protested; to which the government of Tamil Nadu used state's machinery to contain the crowd and in the process killed two and injured many dozens.
In reality the situation is little different. Tamil Nadu here has not much to lose by giving up Malabar region. But if Manipur gives up Nagas' land some 55% of the land will go away. So Manipur has so much to lose; though in another way it will not lose much because not even one Manipuri (Meetei) lives in this Nagas land. Here it must be added that Kukis will claim that they also have a stake in Nagas land because they have also been staying for ages. And it is true that they have been staying for years specially at the edge of the borders, but not too inside Nagas areas.
The GoI has nothing to lose by redrawing the state boundaries. But it is not able to do so because the Manipuris (Meeteis) say that such initiative will lead Manipur to seek secession from India. On the other hand Nagas argue that until all Naga inhabited area comes under one unit, as agreed with GOI, justice is not delivered. As of now Manipur has sent its police commando at the Manipur-Nagaland border to obstruct the entry of the Naga leader. Following the killing of the two protesters against this move of the Manipur Govt., the Nagas have blocked the Highway so that essential items cannot be imported to Imphal. And without vehicles plying on the Highway Imphal will literally starve. Reinforcement sent by the Government of Manipur have been driven back by the Naga public. But the Nagas who are in Imphal either as student or government servant etc are also trapped. Meanwhile the commando team at Manipur-Nagaland border have resorted to looting houses for food as their ration supply has been cut off. And all the males in the locality have run away from the clutches of probably the most notorious-trigger happy commando team in the world. (But they may argue that they have to be trigger happy because only then they can kill the militants for which they have been actually trained. Question is whether they can do the same to unarmed civilian protesters.)
My analysis is that had Manipur Govt shown enough respect for the cease-fire between GOI and NSCN, and allowed the Naga leader, Th. Muivah, to enter Manipur situation would not have been this bad. Even if it has refused entry to Muivah had the commando not killed two protesters situation would not be this bad. Now by any chance, if any Naga civilian is killed either by the commando team or by Manipuris who are also now near hungry and angry, civil war will erupt. But the Naga public are also fully fired up that it appears that unless they get justice they will never budge, and peace will not prevail.
It's something like this: Go back to 1955 when present Malabar region was still part of Tamil Nadu (Madras state). The Malayalis there wanted to join Kerala, but Tamil Nadu refused to part with it. The Malayalis then argue that because they are a minority in this state they are more or less oppressed in term of job opportunity, development opurtunity etc. ; and the Tamil Nadu still refused to part with it. Tamil argue that if they want to join Kerala they can give up the land and go, but that the Malayalis of Malabar refused saying it's been their land since time immemorial, and they have to go with their land. Now a Malayali leader from Malabar region wanted to visit his village after so many years, but Tamil Nadu refused to let him enter the region saying it will lead to fragmentation of Tamil Nadu. So the Malayalis of Malabar protested; to which the government of Tamil Nadu used state's machinery to contain the crowd and in the process killed two and injured many dozens.
In reality the situation is little different. Tamil Nadu here has not much to lose by giving up Malabar region. But if Manipur gives up Nagas' land some 55% of the land will go away. So Manipur has so much to lose; though in another way it will not lose much because not even one Manipuri (Meetei) lives in this Nagas land. Here it must be added that Kukis will claim that they also have a stake in Nagas land because they have also been staying for ages. And it is true that they have been staying for years specially at the edge of the borders, but not too inside Nagas areas.
The GoI has nothing to lose by redrawing the state boundaries. But it is not able to do so because the Manipuris (Meeteis) say that such initiative will lead Manipur to seek secession from India. On the other hand Nagas argue that until all Naga inhabited area comes under one unit, as agreed with GOI, justice is not delivered. As of now Manipur has sent its police commando at the Manipur-Nagaland border to obstruct the entry of the Naga leader. Following the killing of the two protesters against this move of the Manipur Govt., the Nagas have blocked the Highway so that essential items cannot be imported to Imphal. And without vehicles plying on the Highway Imphal will literally starve. Reinforcement sent by the Government of Manipur have been driven back by the Naga public. But the Nagas who are in Imphal either as student or government servant etc are also trapped. Meanwhile the commando team at Manipur-Nagaland border have resorted to looting houses for food as their ration supply has been cut off. And all the males in the locality have run away from the clutches of probably the most notorious-trigger happy commando team in the world. (But they may argue that they have to be trigger happy because only then they can kill the militants for which they have been actually trained. Question is whether they can do the same to unarmed civilian protesters.)
My analysis is that had Manipur Govt shown enough respect for the cease-fire between GOI and NSCN, and allowed the Naga leader, Th. Muivah, to enter Manipur situation would not have been this bad. Even if it has refused entry to Muivah had the commando not killed two protesters situation would not be this bad. Now by any chance, if any Naga civilian is killed either by the commando team or by Manipuris who are also now near hungry and angry, civil war will erupt. But the Naga public are also fully fired up that it appears that unless they get justice they will never budge, and peace will not prevail.
